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- China leads with 339 GW of utility-scale solar and wind under construction, nearly double the rest of the world.
- Solar and wind now account for 37% of China’s total power capacity, set to surpass coal in 2024.
- China’s rapid renewables growth suggests potential early peaking of carbon emissions before 2030.
China’s Renewable Surge:
China is solidifying its position as the global leader in renewable energy with 180 GW of solar and 159 GW of wind power currently under construction. This combined 339 GW is almost twice as much as the rest of the world combined and enough to power all of South Korea, according to Global Energy Monitor (GEM).
Significant Growth in 2023:
In 2023, China added nearly twice as much utility-scale solar and wind capacity as any previous year. By Q1 2024, China’s total capacity, including distributed solar, reached 1,120 GW. Wind and solar now make up 37% of China’s total power capacity, an 8% increase from 2022, and are expected to surpass coal’s 39% share in 2024.
Distributed Solar Expansion:
China’s solar capacity grew more in 2023 than the previous three years combined, with distributed solar leading the way. Nearly half of the distributed solar added in 2023 was installed on residential rooftops, driven by the “whole county solar” model. Distributed solar now accounts for 41% of total solar capacity, growing faster than centralized solar since 2021 due to lower costs and strong policy support.
Wind Power Rebound:
After a brief slowdown in 2022, wind power installation doubled in 2023. GEM’s Global Wind Power Tracker recorded a 51 GW increase in wind capacity since 2023, exceeding the total capacity of any country except the United States.
Future Projections:
China is on track to reach 1,200 GW of installed wind and solar capacity by the end of 2024, six years ahead of its pledge. Although China did not sign the COP28 tripling renewables commitment, it supports the goal and aims to triple its renewable energy capacity by 2030.
Challenges Ahead:
Despite rapid growth, China faces challenges in integrating renewables into its coal-centered grid. The intermittency of renewables and limited transmission capacity are key issues. Curtailment rates exceeded 5% nationwide in March 2024, with some provinces surpassing 10%.
Provincial Leaders:
Northwest and northern provinces dominate large-scale solar and wind installations, while central and southern provinces lead in distributed solar. Offshore wind is growing rapidly, with provinces like Fujian advancing significantly.
Carbon Emissions Outlook:
A study by Lauri Myllyvirta of the Asia Society Policy Institute suggests China’s CO2 emissions may have peaked in 2023, with 90% of power demand increases met by wind and solar. However, Chinese officials aim for a peak no earlier than 2030 to support other sectors’ electrification and avoid sunk costs in coal power.
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China’s relentless push in wind and solar construction ensures it will remain the global leader in renewable energy, driving significant carbon emission reductions and setting a benchmark for the rest of the world.
Download Full Report: Global Energy Monitor – China Wind & Solar Brief July 2024