• China could cut emissions by 30% by 2035, aligning with Paris Agreement targets.
• Comprehensive benchmarks set for critical sectors including electricity, industry, and transport.
• New policy initiatives needed to sustain current clean energy growth and further reduce CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions.

As China stands as the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, its commitment to reducing emissions by 30% by 2035 is a pivotal element in the global effort to meet the Paris Agreement goals. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) has outlined a detailed scorecard in its latest report, presenting benchmarks and policy targets that could guide China’s ambitious decarbonization pathway.

Strategic Emission Reductions Across Key Sectors

CREA’s scorecard details sector-specific targets essential for China’s compliance with its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement:

• Electricity: Achieve a 30% reduction in emissions with a non-fossil power generation share of at least 65% by 2035, driven by an expansion to 5,000 GW of renewable capacity.
• Industry: Industrial emissions need a minimum 25% cut by 2035, with significant reductions from high-emission sectors like steel (45% reduction) and cement (20% reduction).
• Transport: To revert to 2020 emission levels, the target is set for electric vehicles (EVs) to make up 60% of new vehicle sales, and a significant increase in rail freight to 25%.
• Buildings: Propose a 40% reduction in emissions through stringent low-carbon standards for new buildings and retrofitting 25% of existing buildings.

Non-CO2 Emissions and Natural Sinks

In addition to CO2 reductions, CREA emphasizes the importance of addressing non-CO2 greenhouse gases, which constitute a sixth of China’s total emissions. The targets include a 35% reduction of these gases by 2035. Additionally, an increase in forest coverage and other natural sinks by at least 15% compared to 2025 levels is crucial.

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Policy Recommendations and Long-term Impact

The report advocates for robust policy measures including:

• Setting absolute emission reduction targets for both CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gases.
• Expanding and enhancing the effectiveness of China’s National Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) to cover more sectors with an annually declining cap on emissions.
• Continuing and intensifying the deployment of renewable energy sources to meet the rising power demand without increasing emissions.

China’s approach to its 2035 climate goals not only impacts its national policy planning, particularly under the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan, but also significantly influences global climate change mitigation efforts. The potential for China to lead in multilateral climate efforts by setting ambitious, achievable targets is immense and could catalyze similar actions globally.

As policymakers in Beijing deliberate on the specifics of the upcoming targets, the international community watches closely, recognizing the profound implications these decisions have on global efforts to sustain a livable planet.

For further details and updates on China’s climate strategies and their global implications, Check out the full CREA report.