• Vietnam’s first National Sustainable Cooling Plan projects more than 800 TWh of electricity savings by 2050 and a 97 per cent reduction in cooling-related emissions compared with business-as-usual.
• The plan aligns with the Kigali Amendment, phasing out HCFCs by 2040 and cutting HFC consumption by 80 per cent by 2045, while requiring all new buildings to meet green or energy-efficient standards by 2044.
• Integrated financing tools — including cooling-as-a-service, producer-levy trade-ins, and Article 6 ITMO pilots — aim to lower transition costs and attract international investors.

A national push to control cooling demand

Vietnam has released its first National Sustainable Cooling Plan, a sweeping strategy that places cooling at the centre of its net-zero pathway and confronts one of the country’s fastest-growing sources of energy demand. John Robert Cotton, deputy director of the Southeast Asia Energy Transition Partnership, describes the plan as “a landmark achievement,” noting that “it is the first national roadmap that comprehensively tackles one of the fastest-growing drivers of emissions and energy demand.”

The government’s modelling anticipates more than 800 TWh in cumulative electricity savings by mid-century, easing pressure on an already stretched grid and reducing the need for capital-intensive capacity additions. Without intervention, cooling emissions were projected to peak at 116 million tonnes of CO₂e in 2045 — nearly a tenth of national emissions. With full implementation, Cotton says these emissions “are expected to fall by 97 per cent compared with business-as-usual.”

The plan’s commitments extend across refrigerants, appliance standards, building design, and cold chain infrastructure, making it one of the most comprehensive cooling roadmaps in the region.

Integrated measures across buildings, appliances, and cold chains

Vietnam’s NSCP is structured around four strands — appliance efficiency, refrigerant lifecycle management, passive and urban cooling, and cold chain development — phased through 2045. Cotton stresses that the plan’s strength is its institutional integration: “The NSCP is distinctive because it integrates across institutions, policies, and financing, making cooling not just a technical fix but a coordinated national strategy.”

A central inter-ministerial framework prevents duplication and ensures parallel progress across sectors. That coordination is critical, as air-conditioning demand alone represents the largest immediate opportunity. A 50 per cent efficiency improvement by 2030 could deliver nearly 10 TWh of savings that year, reaching close to 70 TWh by 2050.

Buildings represent another significant efficiency wedge. Today, “98 per cent of new buildings lack insulation, and 75 per cent use single glazing,” Cotton notes. The plan aims for half of all new construction to meet green or energy-efficient standards by 2039 and for all buildings to comply by 2044.

Cold chain improvements target annual food losses of 8.8 million tonnes, valued at roughly $3.9 billion, while shifting the system away from high-GWP refrigerants. After 2040, leakage becomes the primary emissions challenge, making the plan’s refrigerant lifecycle roadmap — including recovery, technician certification, and tracking systems — decisive.

The policy and implementation barriers ahead

Meeting the plan’s targets, including halving cooling energy intensity by 2050 and cutting HFC use by 80 per cent by 2045, will require significant policy alignment. Cotton outlines five main challenges, starting with compliance: “Although energy efficiency building codes exist, 41 per cent of new buildings exceed window-to-wall ratio limits, and nearly all are constructed without insulation.” The NSCP links green certification and efficiency benchmarks directly to construction permitting and enforcement to close that gap.

Second, standards and minimum energy performance requirements remain outdated. The plan ties new MEPS to refrigerant phase-down schedules, progressively banning high-GWP products from 2029 and aligning domestic standards with efficiency gains.

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Third, lifecycle refrigerant management must advance quickly. A national registry, mandatory technician certification, and a strengthened monitoring, reporting, and verification system will form the backbone of the transition.

Fourth, upfront financing remains a barrier. Cotton highlights how “cooling-as-a-service removes the upfront barrier for users,” while trade-in schemes backed by producer levies accelerate stock replacement. Article 6 ITMO pilots could generate new revenue streams and attract international capital.

Finally, regulatory alignment is needed across agencies. Cotton calls the amended Law on Economical and Efficient Use of Energy “a turning point,” as it explicitly recognises insulation as an energy-saving product and strengthens the legal basis for new standards.

A model for Southeast Asia’s rising cooling demand

Cooling demand is surging across Southeast Asia, and Vietnam’s approach offers a replicable template. Cotton highlights the plan’s clear division of ministerial responsibility: “This clear division of responsibilities prevents overlap and ensures that policies on efficiency, refrigerants, and passive cooling are advanced in a complementary and coordinated manner.”

Financing structures may hold wider relevance. Timetables for appliance efficiency, refrigerant transition, and green building requirements are linked to mechanisms such as cooling-as-a-service, producer-funded trade-ins, and Article 6 carbon markets. Cotton calls this one of the NSCP’s most important contributions to the regional policy landscape.

Financing models that could shift adoption rates

Among the plan’s proposed instruments, the most transformative may be its carbon market alignment. “Vietnam plans to pilot Article 6 transactions, generating ITMOs from projects such as efficient AC roll-outs and refrigerant recovery,” Cotton explains. These credits could bring international climate finance directly into domestic programmes.

Other mechanisms also aim to ease capital constraints. Trade-in and recycling programmes, supported by producer levies, should accelerate the removal of inefficient appliances while improving refrigerant recovery. Cooling-as-a-service spreads costs over time, making it easier for households and businesses to adopt efficient equipment.

Given the nearly 100 MtCO₂e of avoided cooling emissions expected by 2050, the investment opportunity is substantial — and structured to appeal to institutional capital.

The role of international partners

International organisations will have an essential role in execution. Cotton outlines several areas where support is critical: “Partners can assist with updating appliance standards, strengthening building codes, and establishing lifecycle management systems for refrigerants.” Additional needs include blended-finance design, capacity-building for technicians and builders, and robust MRV systems to track progress toward benchmarks such as the 50 per cent efficiency gain in air conditioners by 2030 and 80 per cent HFC reduction by 2045.

Such collaboration will determine whether the plan delivers on its contribution to Vietnam’s NDC and long-term net-zero target. It may also shape how neighbouring economies design their own cooling-transition strategies.

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