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Shaurya Doval on India’s Energy Transition: The Economics of a $20 Trillion Bet

Shaurya Doval on India’s Energy Transition: The Economics of a $20 Trillion Bet

In an ESG News interview, India Foundation founding director Shaurya Doval sat down with ESG News CEO Matt Bird to unpack the economics of India’s energy transition — and why, for the world’s most populous nation, growth and decarbonization have become the same problem rather than competing ones.

“The stakes couldn’t be higher”: Doval on India’s transition

Doval framed the challenge in stark terms.

“India is making a material transition, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. With a population of 1.3 billion — nearly 20% of the global population — and an 85% dependence on fossil fuel imports, India faces the dual challenge of sustaining its economic growth while reducing its carbon footprint. As the country’s economy is projected to grow from $4 trillion to $20 trillion over the next 10 to 20 years, a continued reliance on fossil fuels is simply unsustainable.”

The math is the argument: an economy expanding fivefold cannot do so on imported hydrocarbons without compounding both its trade exposure and its emissions. For Doval, the energy transition is not an environmental side-project layered onto growth — it is the precondition for the growth itself.

Why India’s energy math is unforgiving

The numbers behind Doval’s point have only sharpened since the interview. In June 2025, India crossed 50% of installed electricity capacity from non-fossil sources — reaching the milestone roughly five years ahead of its 2030 Paris Agreement target. Installed renewable capacity surpassed 250 GW by late 2025, on the way to a stated goal of 500 GW of non-fossil capacity by 2030.

Yet the transition is not linear. Even as clean additions set records, India is planning to expand coal-fired capacity by an estimated 80 GW by 2032 to meet surging demand, and fossil fuels still account for the majority of incremental power generation. That tension — record renewable buildout running alongside continued coal expansion — is precisely the “material transition” Doval describes: not a clean break from fossil fuels, but a displacement contest playing out against a backdrop of relentless demand growth and an 85% import dependence that leaves the economy exposed to global price shocks.

India’s longer arc points to net zero by 2070, but the decisive decade is this one.

The role of the India Foundation in India’s energy transition

The India Foundation operates as a New Delhi–based think tank that convenes policymakers, industry leaders, and subject-matter experts around the country’s policy challenges, energy security among them. Rather than advocacy, its contribution sits upstream of policy: research, conferences, and policy dialogue intended to surface workable pathways for a rapidly growing economy with outsized energy demands.

In the energy domain specifically, that work intersects with the questions India most needs answered this decade — how to finance clean infrastructure at the speed demand requires, how to structure green finance and regulatory frameworks that pull private capital toward renewables, and how to scale investment in clean technologies without stranding the growth they are meant to power. Solar, wind, and hydroelectric build-out at gigawatt scale is the headline; the financing and policy architecture underneath it is where the transition is actually won or lost.

Related Article: Google and Adani Group Partner on Solar Wind Hybrid Project to Power India’s Clean Energy Shift

Who is Shaurya Doval?

Shaurya Doval is a member of the International Senior Team of Greater Pacific Capital, focusing on deal origination and the management of senior external relationships for the firm. Prior to joining GPC, he co-founded Zeus Capital, an Indian infrastructure-focused investment bank that has closed more than US$1bn of transactions across multiple geographies and sectors. Earlier, he was a Director in the principal finance business of GE Capital in London, where he worked on a number of the firm’s key equity investments.

He is the founding director of the India Foundation, a think tank based in New Delhi. He holds an MBA from the University of Chicago and London Business School, and is a qualified accountant.

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FAQ

What is the India Foundation? The India Foundation is a New Delhi–based think tank that convenes policymakers, industry leaders, and experts around Indian policy issues, including energy security and the country’s clean-energy transition. Its work centers on research, policy dialogue, and conferences rather than direct advocacy.

Who is Shaurya Doval? Shaurya Doval is the founding director of the India Foundation and a member of the International Senior Team at Greater Pacific Capital. He previously co-founded Zeus Capital and was a director in GE Capital’s principal finance business in London.

What did Shaurya Doval say about India’s energy transition? Doval argued that India’s transition is unavoidable on economic grounds: with roughly 20% of the world’s population, 85% dependence on fossil-fuel imports, and an economy projected to grow from $4 trillion to $20 trillion, he said continued reliance on fossil fuels is “simply unsustainable.”

Why is India’s energy transition significant? As one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing economies, India’s energy choices materially affect global emissions trajectories. The country reached 50% non-fossil installed power capacity in 2025 — ahead of schedule — while still expanding coal capacity to meet demand, making it a defining test case for whether rapid growth and decarbonization can run together.

Special thanks to our partners DatamaranCFA Institute, and The Nest Climate Campus.

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