• Global clean-energy product shipments reached $479 billion in 2025, up 1% after a 7% decline from 2023 to 2024.
• US tariffs did not stop growth in cross-border trade for clean-tech, battery metals and grid equipment.
• Fossil-fuel price shocks tied to Middle East conflict could accelerate clean-tech imports in emerging markets.

Clean-Energy Trade Defies Tariffs

London, New York and global energy markets entered 2025 facing tariffs, industrial policy shifts and widening geopolitical risk. Yet clean-energy trade still grew.

Global shipments of products central to the energy transition reached $479 billion in 2025, according to BloombergNEF’s Energy Transition Supply Chains 2026 report. The annual increase was modest at 1%, but it reversed a 7% fall recorded between 2023 and 2024.

The rebound matters for governments, investors and manufacturers. It shows that cross-border trade in clean-tech products remains resilient, even as the US reinstated and revised tariffs across several energy transition sectors.

For executives, the finding is clear. Clean-energy supply chains are no longer a niche procurement issue. They are now a core part of trade strategy, energy security and industrial policy.

Fossil-Fuel Shocks Add Pressure

BloombergNEF said global supply chains have become a sharper focus for the energy industry as trade volatility and geopolitical conflict reshape risk.

The conflict in the Middle East has pushed fossil-fuel prices higher. Asian and African countries, many of which rely heavily on imported oil and gas, are among the most exposed.

That pressure could lift demand for solar equipment, batteries and electric vehicles. Historical BNEF data shows that countries more dependent on fuel imports have often seen stronger growth in clean-tech imports.

Pakistan offers a clear example. In 2022, solar module imports rose 189% to $1 billion after fuel prices surged following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Small-scale solar installations in the country reached a record 18.3GW in 2025.

High electricity tariffs, costly liquefied natural gas imports, power outages and load-shedding all helped drive that shift.

“As conflict in the Middle East persists, many markets are doubling down on the deployment of clean technology to improve their energy security and resilience,” said Antoine Vagneur-Jones, head of trade and supply chains at BNEF and lead author of the report. “This presents a huge opportunity for manufacturers to expand exports of the equipment and products required to power the energy transition.”

Overcapacity Still Defines The Market

The report also points to a tougher reality for manufacturers. Clean-tech supply chains remain heavily oversupplied.

BloombergNEF said overcapacity is mainly driven by Chinese overinvestment. The world now has more than 200% of the manufacturing capacity needed to meet global demand across the clean-tech value chain.

That pressure is visible across batteries, solar and electric vehicles. Wind and battery markets are also notably oversupplied.

The supply glut is no longer limited to China. Southeast Asia, India and Turkey are expanding solar manufacturing capacity. Egypt and Ethiopia are also emerging as potential clean-tech production hubs.

For manufacturers, the result is a margin squeeze. For buyers, it may support lower equipment costs, although price declines are slowing.

Prices Fall More Slowly

Solar prices continued to fall in 2025, but at a slower pace. BloombergNEF linked the softer decline partly to rising silver prices.

Battery pack prices also fell, moving from $118 per kilowatt-hour in 2024 to $108/kWh. Yet that decline was slower than in previous years because battery-metal prices remained elevated.

Onshore wind equipment prices moved in the opposite direction. Turbine makers raised prices slightly as they sought to recover earlier losses.

The pricing picture gives investors a more complex signal. Oversupply remains strong, but raw materials and manufacturer balance sheets are limiting further cost drops.

RELATED ARTICLE: BloombergNEF Report Shows Corporate Clean Energy Buying Declined in 2025

Western Onshoring Faces Limits

BloombergNEF also examined efforts to onshore manufacturing in Western markets.

Despite new policy frameworks in the US and Europe, the report found little chance that either market will compete globally as a major exporter. Factory capacity has increased in both regions, but much of the expansion has been downstream.

Several announced projects now face delays or cancellations. Slow demand, shifting policy and stronger competition have weakened the case for some investments.

That creates a governance challenge. Policymakers want domestic supply chains for strategic industries. Yet global cost competition still favors established production hubs.

Solar, Batteries And Emerging Markets Shift

The report also found that global solar trade is shifting. Midstream solar cells now account for a larger share of trade as final module assembly expands outside China.

Solar cells made up 44% of global cell and module trade in 2025, up from 25% a year earlier. Overall solar shipments fell ahead of 2026, when BNEF had projected solar deployment to decline.

India’s solar manufacturing push has gained traction. Downstream overcapacity and midstream investment could position the country as a major exporter. Turkey is also emerging as a potential rival.

Battery trade is changing too. Most internationally traded lithium-ion batteries still serve electric vehicles. However, stationary energy storage is gaining share as global installations rise.

Energy storage systems accounted for 29% of battery shipments within the segment. That share grew 64% year-on-year.

For C-suite leaders, the takeaway is not simply that clean-energy trade recovered. It is that energy security, tariffs and fossil-fuel exposure are now shaping clean-tech demand together.

Markets such as Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam may move faster if fuel prices remain high. Their policy choices could also accelerate clean-tech uptake.

The global transition is becoming less dependent on climate targets alone. It is increasingly tied to cost, resilience and national security. That makes clean-energy supply chains a strategic issue for every region exposed to fossil-fuel volatility.